Metropolitan Water District releases analysis of water supplies for next three years

Los Angeles-based Metropolitan Water District (MWD) has released their analysis of water supplies for the next three years saying that it has sufficient water supplies to meet the demands of its member agencies thanks, in large part, to Southland residents and their successful water conservation efforts.

When the State Water Resources Control Board ended mandatory emergency water conservation measures in May, they instead asked water agencies — throughout the state — to demonstrate whether they would have sufficient supplies for the ensuing three years, if California’s five-year drought continues. This “stress test,” as it has come to be known, is the new regulation that if an agency anticipates a water shortfall it must make locally-mandated water cuts by that same amount through January 2017.

Water supply wholesalers are required to provide projections on the amount of water they expect to deliver to retailers based on a three-year water supply projection that assumes current supply conditions plus an assumed hydrology based on the 2013, 2014 and 2015 water years, and a total potable water demand based on the supplier’s average annual total potable water production for 2013 and 2014.

In Metropolitan’s case they will not be forced into any mandatory water conservation plans but long-term conservation is a key part of their water supply reliability plan.

“This so-called ‘stress test’ asked if we can provide water for our member agencies for the next three years, and our answer is yes,” said Metropolitan General Manager Jeffrey Kightlinger. “To provide that assurance, we have invested to diversify our water portfolio with some of the nation’s largest conservation programs, more storage, and ongoing efforts to improve reliability of imported water supplies.”

The stress-test is based on a careful analysis of anticipated conditions. For Metropolitan this means taking into account water supply challenges including the ongoing drought, uncertainty regarding imported water deliveries from Northern California via the Sacramento-San Joaquin Bay Delta, and limitations on the Colorado River.

Conservation and recycling will account for one-third of MWD’s water portfolio by 2040 according to the agency’s Integrated Water Resources Plan. The plan was updated in January and will guide the agency’s long-term water management policies.

“Metropolitan is focused on supporting long-term water conservation and moving toward a more sustainable lifestyle,” said Brandon Goshi, manager of water policy and strategy. “Rather than look to water rationing as a solution in dry years, we are focused on how to be reliable every year.” To that end, Metropolitan has invested nearly $1 billion over the past 25 years to develop drought-resilient local supplies, increase water conservation and reduce per capita water use.

In May, the Metropolitan board of directors declared a Water Supply Alert calling for continued awareness and reinforced conservation throughout the district’s 5,200-square-mile service area. This was on the heels of the board’s approval in April of a $100 million investment over the next two years for conservation programs and rebates for permanent water-saving devices.

“We are constantly assessing conditions to ensure we have sufficient supplies,” Kightlinger said. “That said, if we have an exceptional drop in supplies, or an unusual spike in demand, we will absolutely turn to our other tools, such as our allocation plan, to ensure that we maintain water reliability.”